Biden Resignation Would Reshape Explosive 2024 Election
The rumors and reports surrounding President Biden's potential early exit from office have put the nation on guard for a seismic shift that could dramatically upend the next presidential campaign cycle before it even begins in earnest.
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While the White House has strenuously pushed back on talk of a Biden resignation, speculation persists that mounting age, health, and political factors may force him to step aside in the near future. And if the 80-year-old president were to heed calls from within his own party to not seek reelection and instead resign beforehand, the downstream impacts on the 2024 race would be profound for both Democrats and Republicans alike.
For starters, Biden's vice president, Kamala Harris, would immediately ascend into the Oval Office upon a resignation under the rules of the 25th Amendment. Thers problem? Harris herself has been a hugely ineffective and unpopular vice president, struggling with bottom-basement approval ratings even lower than Biden's. Saddled with critical failures on the border crisis, ham-fisted messaging, and doubts about her general competency, the prospect of Harris becoming the de facto incumbent nominee heading into 2024 is a nightmare for Democrats.
On one hand, an incumbent president historically has great advantages in seeking reelection, with none losing at the ballot box in three decades. So Harris would carry the power of incumbency despite never actually being elected to the presidency herself. But that double-edged sword cuts both ways, as Republicans could just as easily target Harris as an "accidental president" who assumed power without a real mandate from voters. Donald Trump or another GOP candidate would certainly relish trying to block Harris from winning a full term on her own after "failing up" into the White House through Biden's resignation.
For Democrats, a Harris nomination after taking over for Biden could inflame tensions and dampen enthusiasm within their own ranks. Coming off the turbulent Biden years and selling herself as the rightful heir to that stagnant agenda is hardly an inspiring rallying cry for Democrats already despondent over the party's bleak political fortunes. So significant primary challengers to Harris could quickly emerge, from Big Student Loan Forgiveness proponent like California Governor Gavin Newsom, to more progressive firebrands finally seeing their opening onto the national stage.
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In that scenario, Democrats could find themselves in the midst of a grueling and potentially unprecedented intra-party melee, just when unity and momentum are most desperately needed. The Republican nominee, meanwhile, would be able to largely solidify their own coalition and aim squarely at the bleeding chaos of the Democratic side.
Should Harris manage to fend off any Democratic rebellion and win her party's nomination, she'd still carry the debilitating baggage of her likability woes and policy misfires as Biden's number two into the general election. The Republican attack plan would be trivially simple: present themselves as the resolute, stable force after years of Democratic malaise and dysfunction, then watch Harris endlessly undermine herself by ... being Kamala Harris.
Of course, such a dire outlook for Democrats could rapidly shift if a proverbial white knight like Newsom actually waged a successful primary coup against Harris, a scenario that would dramatically reset some dynamics. In that case, voters may get a Biden 2.0 in Newsom selling himself again as a more polished, political heir to Democrats' current regime. Or they could see Newsom or another nominee pivot their party in a more progressive direction, sparking totally new battle lines in the general election.
There's also an outside chance neither Harris nor an insurgent Democrat gets the nod for 2024. If Democrats see their upcoming nomination process as a flaming garbage fire they'd rather avoid at all costs, a wildcard establishment pick like Hillary Clinton could re-emerge as their hold-your-nose "unity candidate" to stem internal bleeding. Yes, Clinton was crushed by Trump in 2016. But Biden did defeat Trump in 2020, so some in the party may convinve themselves she's still more "electable" than either unpopular Harris or an Untested up-and-comer.
This dizzying array of outcomes emanating from just one Biden resignation is precisely why both parties, for radically different reasons, would prefer he simply finish what's left of his term. For Democrats, it means retaining thesemblence of leadership and legacy continuity heading into their convention. While Republicans would much rather run against the clearly doomed Biden in 2024 than roll the dice on a messier, albeit weakened re-set under Harris or someone worse.
No matter what ultimately happens, the winds of Biden's potential exit are already shaking up political terrain that remains perpetually unsettled by conflicts and conundrums of the president's own making. America has yet another uncertainty to brace for in the presidency's succession line, a reality almost too absurd to envision not long ago. But like much of Biden's turbulent tenure, once-farcical consequences have become all too real.
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