Job Shockwaves: How to Invest After August's Payrolls Earthquake

• By Staff Editor
• Sep 05 2024

Baseline Scenario Priced In
The upcoming August jobs report has the potential to shake up markets in a big way, so investors better brace for impact. On the surface, consensus expectations seem tame enough - calling for 161,000 payrolls added last month alongside a 4.2% unemployment rate.

Line in the Sand for the Fed
But make no mistake, this release has become a line in the sand for the Federal Reserve's increasingly scrutinized policy path. And how this critical data point ultimately lands could dictate whether the central bank merely taps the brakes with a modest 25 basis point rate cut...or slams the pedal for an emergency 50bp downshift in its war against inflation.

"Goldilocks" Rally Potential
Let's start with the "Goldilocks" scenario priced into estimates - a job growth number in the 150,000 to 200,000 range that keeps the economy chugging ahead while letting off some steam in overheated sectors. Such a print would give the Fed just enough justification to initiate its long-awaited pivot via a 25bp ease.

That outcome is still seen sparking a modest rally in obvious rate-sensitive areas like financials, housing, consumer cyclicals and industrials. But with this smaller "baby step" dialing down little in the way of future rate cut expectations, the overall boost for equities could prove relatively contained compared to current pricing. Meanwhile, technology stocks have already seen valuations balloon on the Fed stepping back from ultra-hawkishness - leaving them vulnerable to any "sell the news" reaction.

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Tech's "Magnificent Seven" at a Crossroads
For the tech sector, and the "Magnificent Seven" mega-cap leaders in particular, the jobs data represents a critical crossroads. A disappointing print below 100,000 gains would dramatically increase chances of a 50+ basis point rate cut by the Fed in September. This pivotal policy shift to easier money could be an upside catalyst that justifies tech's currently lofty valuations:

• Lower rates boost valuations by decreasing the discount rate on future cash flows
• Easing financial conditions fuel hopes the Fed can engineer a "soft landing"
• Battered chipmakers, software firms and unprofitable tech could get a lift

However, any upside jobs surprise over 200k could pour cold water on the "Fed pivot" narrative powering this year's huge tech rally. Fears of overtightening into an economic hard landing could spark valuation compression for richly-priced giants like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet. Cyclical growth concerns would punish chipmakers and consumer hardware plays.

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Nightmare Downside Scenario
However, a number that badly misses to the downside below 100,000 (or even negative job losses) would slam the Fed's policy inertia into total disarray. That's the nightmare scenario officials absolutely must avoid if retaining any remaining crisis management credibility.

Unleashing the "Fed Pivot" Beast
In this case, the bond market would immediately reprice a MUCH more aggressive Fed easing cycle, incorporating at minimum a 50bp cut by mid-September alongside rising odds of further 75bp or 100bp "bazooka" strikes down the line. Similar to past easing spirals, that type of radically re-shaped outlook would spark huge rotation into beneficiaries like financial institutions, real estate, utilities and other classic rate-play havens.

Recession Risks Re-Emerging
The double-edged sword, of course, is that same frenzied buying inevitably invites recession undercurrents to re-emerge - likely catalyzing a future bout of indiscriminate selling once the Fed's handiwork is realized as too little, too late. At that point, ultimate safe-havens like healthcare, consumer staples and certain big-cap tech heavyweights could enjoy their day in the sun.

Massive Volatility Guaranteed
In the interim though, this jobs catalyst holds the keys to unlocking massive cross-asset volatility and realignment trades as investors are forced to rapidly re-assess the growth versus inflation battle still raging across the US economy. Whether it's a modest "re-think" or a full "policy overhaul" sparked by Friday's numbers, traders will need to move quickly in re-positioning for how the Fed's playbook stands to evolve.

No Middle Ground Anymore
For any investors still harboring illusions this payrolls release was "just another data point" - it's time to wake up. Whether by small nudges or seismic shocks, August's jobs scoreline will dictate how markets ultimately re-calibrate for an interest rate path leaving ZERO middle ground between central bank success or colossal failure. You've been warned.

YOU NEED TO WATCH THIS BEFORE TOMORROW'S REPORT

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