U.S. power consumption will rise 2.0% this year as state and local governments ease coronavirus lockdowns, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.
EIA projected power demand will rise to 3,879 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) in 2021 and 3,935 billion kWh in 2022 from a coronavirus-depressed 11-year low of 3,802 billion kWh in 2020. That compares with an all-time high of 4,003 billion kWh in 2018.
EIA projected 2021 power sales would rise to 1,503 billion kWh for residential consumers, which would be a record as continuing lockdowns cause more people to work from home, 1,294 billion kWh for commercial customers and 945 billion kWh for industrials.
That compares with all-time highs of 1,469 billion kWh in 2018 for residential consumers, 1,382 billion kWh in 2018 for commercial customers and 1,064 billion kWh in 2000 for industrials.
The EIA said natural gas’ share of power generation will slide from 39% in 2020 to 36% in 2021 and 35% in 2022 as gas prices increase, while coal’s share will rise from 20% in 2020 to 23% in 2021, before slipping to 22% in 2022.
The percentage of nuclear generation will ease from 21% in 2020 to 20% in 2021 and 19% in 2022, while renewables will rise from 20% in 2020 to 21% in 2021 and 23% in 2022.
The EIA projected 2021 natural gas sales would rise to 13.29 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) for residential consumers, 9.25 bcfd for commercial customers and 23.25 bcfd for industrials, but fall to 29.39 bcfd for power generation.
That compares with all-time highs of 14.36 bcfd in 1996 for residential consumers, 9.63 bcfd in 2018 for commercial customers, 23.80 bcfd in 1973 for industrials and 31.74 bcfd in 2020 for power generation.
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